SBIR Commercialization Plan Examples: What Evaluators Score Highest

The commercialization plan is where most SBIR proposals either separate themselves from the competition or collapse under the weight of vague promises. Reviewers see hundreds of proposals per cycle that describe solid technical work but cannot articulate how that work becomes a product, a revenue stream, or a deployed capability. The commercialization plan is your chance to prove that you are building a business, not just conducting research.

Having reviewed scored SBIR proposals across NIH, DOD, NSF, and DOE, one pattern is unmistakable: the proposals that score highest on commercialization are the ones that present evidence rather than aspirations. A letter of intent from a potential customer is worth more than a paragraph about market size. A signed partnership with a contract manufacturer outweighs a theoretical go-to-market strategy. This guide breaks down what evaluators actually reward, with scored example outlines you can use as models.

What Agencies Actually Want in a Commercialization Plan

Before looking at examples, it is important to understand the core elements that every strong commercialization plan includes. While emphasis varies by agency, the fundamentals are consistent.

Market Analysis

Evaluators want to see that you understand the market you are entering -- not just its size, but its structure. A strong market analysis includes:

• Total addressable market (TAM) with a credible methodology. Do not cite a grand market research number and claim you will capture 1% of it. Instead, build your estimate from the bottom up. How many potential customers exist? What is the average deal size? What is the realistic adoption curve?
• Specific customer segments. Name the types of organizations or individuals who would buy your product. If you are developing a diagnostic device, specify which clinical settings, which patient populations, which reimbursement codes.
• Competitive landscape. Identify existing solutions, their limitations, and why your approach is differentiated. Reviewers are skeptical of claims that "no competition exists." Everything has competition, even if the competition is the status quo of doing nothing.

Customer Discovery Evidence

This is where strong proposals pull ahead. Evaluators at every agency respond to tangible evidence that you have talked to real customers. Include:

• Summaries of customer discovery interviews (number of interviews, key findings, how findings shaped your product design)
• Letters of intent or support from potential customers, partners, or end users
• Pilot program data or beta testing results if available
• Advisory board members with market expertise

Intellectual Property Strategy

Your IP strategy tells the reviewer whether your competitive advantage is defensible. Cover:

• Current patent filings (application numbers, filing dates, claim scope)
• Freedom-to-operate analysis if operating in a crowded IP space
• Trade secret strategy for know-how that cannot be patented
• Licensing strategy if your business model involves licensing rather than direct sales

Revenue Projections

Revenue projections in an SBIR commercialization plan should be realistic and well-supported. Reviewers are not looking for hockey-stick growth charts. They want to see:

• Year-by-year revenue estimates for at least three to five years post-Phase II
• Clearly stated assumptions underlying each projection
• Multiple revenue scenarios (conservative, moderate, aggressive) with different assumptions
• Identification of the key driver that determines which scenario plays out

Go-to-Market Plan

The go-to-market section answers the question: how does your product reach customers? This includes:

• Sales channels (direct sales team, distribution partners, online platform, government procurement vehicles)
• Pricing strategy with justification
• Marketing and customer acquisition approach
• Regulatory pathway and timeline if applicable (FDA clearance, EPA registration, FCC certification)
• Manufacturing or production plan for scaling beyond prototype

Phase I vs. Phase II Commercialization Expectations

The depth and specificity expected in your commercialization plan depends on which phase you are applying for.

Phase I Expectations

In Phase I, the technical work is the priority. But reviewers still want to see that you have thought seriously about commercialization. A Phase I commercialization plan is typically two to five pages and should include:

• A clear description of the target market and the problem your technology solves for paying customers
• Preliminary market sizing with sources
• Initial customer discovery findings (even five to ten interviews demonstrate effort)
• A preliminary IP strategy
• A high-level path from Phase I results to Phase II and beyond
• Identification of key commercialization risks and how you plan to address them

The bar is lower than Phase II, but a weak Phase I commercialization plan signals to reviewers that you view SBIR as a research grant rather than a business development program. That signal kills proposals.

Phase II Expectations

Phase II commercialization plans are substantially more rigorous. Agencies expect you to have used Phase I not just to prove technical feasibility but also to advance your market understanding. A Phase II commercialization plan should include:

• Detailed market analysis with updated TAM/SAM/SOM estimates based on Phase I customer engagement
• Multiple letters of intent or commitment from potential customers, distributors, or strategic partners
• A developed IP portfolio (filed patents, not just provisional applications)
• Detailed financial projections with supporting assumptions
• A concrete manufacturing or production strategy with identified partners or facilities
• A regulatory strategy with timeline milestones
• An investment or funding strategy for the gap between Phase II completion and commercial revenue
• Third-party validation data (market research reports, independent testing results, pilot program outcomes)

DOD now requires a commercialization readiness assessment for many Phase II proposals. NIH expects a Company Commercialization History section. NSF evaluates your "commercial potential" as one of three primary review criteria. Treat the Phase II commercialization plan as seriously as the technical proposal.

How Agencies Weight Commercialization Differently

Department of Defense (DOD)

DOD places the heaviest emphasis on commercialization. The program has shifted toward "Phase III success" -- transitioning technologies into programs of record or commercial products. Key priorities: dual-use potential (military plus commercial applications), a named transition pathway to a specific DOD program or prime contractor, a strong Commercialization Achievement Index (CAI) tracking prior Phase III revenue, and evidence of co-investment from private capital.

National Institutes of Health (NIH)

NIH evaluates commercialization through patient impact and healthcare market dynamics. Key priorities: FDA regulatory pathway (identify device classification, predicate devices, or clinical trial requirements), reimbursement strategy (name CPT codes and estimated payer reimbursement), clinical adoption pathway (who prescribes/uses the product and what evidence they need), and Company Commercialization History (a required section tracking revenue from prior SBIR awards).

National Science Foundation (NSF)

NSF weights "commercial potential" equally with intellectual merit and broader impacts. Key priorities: extensive customer discovery (100 interviews is the benchmark, ideally I-Corps-influenced), a clear business model canvas, scalability beyond niche markets, and commercial expertise on the team beyond just technical researchers.

Department of Energy (DOE)

DOE's focus on clean energy and advanced manufacturing creates unique commercialization requirements. Key priorities: techno-economic analysis showing cost competitiveness at scale (levelized cost calculations, manufacturing cost projections), deployment pathway through pilot demonstrations and utility partnerships, supply chain resilience, and alignment with policy incentives (tax credits, renewable energy standards).

Scored Example Outlines

The following outlines illustrate what separates a high-scoring commercialization plan from a weak one. These are composite examples based on real proposals, not reproductions of any single submission.

Example 1: Strong Phase I Commercialization Plan (DOD -- Scored in Top 10%)

Company: Small business developing an AI-powered predictive maintenance system for military rotorcraft.

Market Analysis (1 page):

• Bottom-up TAM calculation: 5,400 rotorcraft across U.S. military branches, with an average maintenance cost of $1.2 million per airframe per year. Addressable market for predictive analytics estimated at $340 million annually.
• Identified three customer segments: military maintenance depots, OEM aftermarket services, and commercial helicopter operators (dual-use).
• Named four competing approaches (legacy scheduled maintenance, two commercial predictive maintenance vendors, and one DARPA-funded project) with specific limitations of each.

Customer Discovery (0.5 pages):

• Conducted 22 interviews with military maintenance officers, depot commanders, and OEM service managers over six months.
• Key finding: current maintenance intervals result in 30-40% of component replacements occurring before end of useful life. Customer willingness to pay for predictive capability is high if false-positive rate stays below 5%.
• Included two letters of intent from defense prime contractors expressing interest in pilot testing.

IP Strategy (0.5 pages):

• One provisional patent filed covering the core anomaly detection algorithm (application number provided).
• Trade secret protection for training dataset derived from three years of maintenance records obtained under data use agreement.
• Freedom-to-operate search completed; no blocking patents identified.

Go-to-Market (1 page):

• Phase I goal: validate algorithm accuracy using historical data. Phase II goal: deploy on two test aircraft.
• Phase III transition plan: partner with prime contractor (LOI included) to integrate into existing maintenance management system, targeting a Phase III contract with NAVAIR.
• Commercial pathway: license technology to helicopter OEMs for commercial fleet management starting Year 3.
• Revenue projection: $2.4 million in Phase III government contracts by Year 2, $8 million in combined government and commercial revenue by Year 5.

Why This Scored Well: The plan names specific customers, cites real interview data, includes letters of intent, and provides a concrete transition pathway to a named DOD program. The revenue projections are tied to identifiable assumptions rather than market-share guesswork.

Example 2: Weak Phase I Commercialization Plan (Generic -- Bottom Quartile)

Company: Small business developing a novel water filtration membrane.

Market Analysis (0.5 pages):

• "The global water treatment market is projected to reach $211 billion by 2030 (Grand View Research). Our technology addresses a significant portion of this market."
• No segmentation of which customers within the water treatment market would buy this specific membrane.
• No competitive analysis beyond stating that "existing membranes have limitations."

Customer Discovery (0.25 pages):

• "We have had informal discussions with several potential customers who expressed interest in our technology."
• No interview count, no specific findings, no letters.

IP Strategy (0.25 pages):

• "We plan to file a provisional patent upon receiving SBIR funding."
• No current IP protection of any kind.

Go-to-Market (0.5 pages):

• "We will target municipal water treatment facilities and industrial users. Our sales strategy will include direct outreach and trade show participation."
• Revenue projection: "We estimate $50 million in revenue within five years."
• No basis for the projection, no pricing strategy, no manufacturing plan.

Why This Scored Poorly: Every element is vague. The market analysis cites a global figure without connecting it to the specific product. Customer discovery is described in generalities without evidence. The IP strategy is aspirational rather than actual. The revenue projection is unsupported. Reviewers concluded that the team had not done the commercial work needed to justify SBIR investment.

Example 3: Strong Phase II Commercialization Plan (NIH -- Funded, Score: 25)

Company: Small business developing a point-of-care diagnostic for early detection of sepsis.

Market Analysis (1.5 pages):

• Bottom-up market sizing: 1.7 million sepsis cases annually in the U.S., approximately 750,000 in emergency departments where a rapid diagnostic would be used. At an estimated reimbursement of $85 per test, the immediate addressable market is $63.75 million annually in the U.S.
• Competitive analysis of six existing sepsis biomarkers (procalcitonin, lactate, CRP, presepsin, IL-6, and blood culture) with sensitivity/specificity comparisons and turnaround time advantages of the new technology.
• International market opportunity: identified UK NHS, German hospital networks, and Japanese hospital systems as initial targets, with combined international TAM of $110 million.

Customer Discovery (1 page):

• Completed 47 structured interviews with emergency physicians, clinical pathologists, hospital administrators, and health system procurement officers.
• Key finding validated in Phase I: clinicians will adopt a new sepsis marker only if the test returns results in under 20 minutes and integrates with existing analyzer platforms. Phase I achieved 14-minute turnaround.
• Included five letters of intent from hospital systems representing 23 facilities willing to participate in clinical validation studies.
• Advisory board includes a former FDA reviewer for in-vitro diagnostics and a hospital system Chief Medical Officer.

IP Strategy (0.5 pages):

• Two issued utility patents covering the biomarker panel and the assay chemistry (patent numbers provided).
• One pending application covering the analyzer cartridge design.
• Freedom-to-operate opinion from IP counsel confirming no infringement risks.
• Trade secret protection for manufacturing process parameters.

Regulatory and Reimbursement Strategy (1 page):

• FDA pathway: 510(k) submission using procalcitonin assays as predicate devices. Pre-submission meeting completed; FDA feedback confirmed the pathway.
• Clinical validation plan: 500-patient prospective study across three sites, funded through Phase II.
• Reimbursement: identified CPT code 86141 (C-reactive protein) as most likely analogy. Engaged health economics consultants to prepare a dossier for payer submissions. Estimated Medicare reimbursement: $80-95 per test.
• Timeline: 510(k) submission Month 18 of Phase II, clearance anticipated Month 24, commercial launch Month 30.

Financial Projections (1 page):

• Detailed year-by-year revenue model from commercial launch through Year 5.
• Conservative scenario: $4.2 million Year 1 (40 hospital installations), $18 million Year 3, $42 million Year 5.
• Key assumption: 15% market penetration of U.S. emergency departments by Year 5.
• Capital requirements: $3.5 million Series A raise planned for Month 20 of Phase II to fund manufacturing scale-up and commercial launch. Two venture firms with medtech portfolios have expressed preliminary interest (names redacted, contact information available).

Why This Scored Well: Every claim is backed by data. The regulatory pathway is informed by actual FDA feedback. The reimbursement strategy names specific CPT codes. Customer discovery is extensive and directly influenced the product design. Financial projections are built from identifiable assumptions that reviewers can evaluate. The plan demonstrates that Phase I was used not just for technical work but for serious commercial de-risking.

Common Commercialization Plan Mistakes

Confusing a market report with a market analysis. Citing a Grand View Research figure is a starting point, not an analysis. Reviewers want your segmentation of that market and your evidence for why customers will buy.

Omitting the competition. Claiming you have no competitors is one of the fastest ways to lose reviewer confidence. Everything competes with something, even if that something is the status quo.

Letters of support that say nothing. A letter that reads "We support this company's SBIR application" is useless. Strong letters state specific interest in the technology and commit to a pilot program, data sharing, or purchase.

Unrealistic timelines. Claiming FDA clearance in six months or $100 million in revenue by Year 3 undermines your credibility. Reviewers know the real timelines for your sector.

Ignoring the funding gap. Most SBIR technologies need additional capital between Phase II completion and commercial revenue. If your plan does not address this gap, reviewers will question whether the technology will ever reach the market.

Building a Stronger Commercialization Plan

Start your commercialization work the day you begin writing your SBIR proposal. Talk to potential customers before you write about the market. File provisional patents before you submit. Get letters of intent signed weeks before the deadline.

If you are applying for Phase II, use Phase I as a structured commercialization discovery period. Every Phase I should produce not just technical data but customer interview summaries, partnership discussions, IP filings, and market validation evidence.

The commercialization plan is not a formality. It is the section that tells reviewers whether their investment in your technology will produce impact beyond the laboratory. Treat it accordingly.

Keep Reading

• SBIR Grant Guide 2026: Everything You Need to Know Before Applying
• SBIR Phase I vs Phase II: Requirements and Strategy
• Commercialization Strategy: Crafting a Winning Plan for Your NIH SBIR Grant Application
• Granted AI for SBIR Applicants

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