Randomized Controlled Trials of Criminal Justice Programs and Practices

Randomized Controlled Trials of Criminal Justice Programs and Practices is sponsored by Arnold Ventures. Supports rigorous evaluations, primarily randomized controlled trials, of interventions designed to improve criminal justice outcomes like recidivism reduction.

Grants Announcement: Arnold Ventures Criminal… | Arnold Ventures Grants Announcement: Arnold Ventures Criminal Justice Research Grants in First Half of 2025 Demonstrate Its Ongoing Commitment to Evidence-Based Solutions Rigorous evaluation, testing, and replication ensure that policymakers and practitioners have confidence that interventions can work across jurisdictions and populations.

Houston, TX (July 31 , 2025 ) – In the first half of 2025 , Arnold Ventures ( AV ) awarded approximately 50 new research grants through its open RFP for research on community safety and the criminal justice system. These grants, totaling over $ 15 million, demonstrate the philanthropy’s ongoing commitment to rigorously investigate pressing issues in public safety and develop, test, and replicate potential policy solutions.

The first and second quarter grants support research in a variety of areas, including police recruitment, technology to aid law enforcement investigations, alternative crisis response, housing, treatment for substance use disorders, supervised release, police body-worn cameras and court outcomes, case screening, public defenders and case outcomes, juvenile incarceration, and the economic impact of criminal convictions.

Grant awards also focused on programs and efforts that seek to reduce recidivism – and thus improve public safety – by providing support and programming to incarcerated and formerly incarcerated people. This includes cognitive behavioral therapy programs, credit access, apprenticeship opportunities, and more.

“ It is inspiring to see the wide variety of policies and programs being evaluated across the country,” said Jennifer Doleac , executive vice president of criminal justice at AV . ​ “ We know from experience that many promising interventions won’t have the impact we are hoping for. But some will, and these research studies will help us identify which ideas are effective and worth scaling.

” Examples of funded grant applications are included here. This release covers a subset of grants that were committed, awarded, or fully executed in the first and second quarters of 2025 . It is intended to be illustrative of the work that AV is funding in the criminal justice field and serve as a resource for academics and practitioners who might be interested in applying for funding or in the outcome of previously funded research.

It is not a comprehensive summary of AV ’s criminal justice grantmaking. Grant amounts are rounded to the nearest hundred dollars. Arnold Ventures is a philanthropy that supports research to understand the root causes of America’s most persistent and pressing problems, as well as evidence-based solutions to address them.

By focusing on systemic change, AV is working to improve the lives of American families, strengthen their communities, and promote their economic opportunity.

Name: The Causal and Heterogeneous Impacts of Housing: Evidence from the Allegheny Housing Assessment and Shelter Description: This project uses an instrumental variables design to estimate the causal impact of two housing programs (permanent supportive housing and rapid rehousing) on downstream outcomes including contact with the criminal justice system.

Geographic Focus: Allegheny County, Pennsylvania Grant Recipient: County of Allegheny Principal Investigator(s): Felipe Diaz Klaassen, Matthew Pecenco, Pim Welle Name: Fines, Fees, and Policing for Profit: Evidence from Policy Reforms in Missouri Description: This project uses a difference-in-differences design to estimate the causal effect of policy changes governing the municipal collection of fines and fees on policing patterns and public safety.

Geographic Focus: Missouri Grant Recipient: Brown University Principal Investigator(s): Jesse Bruhn, Brian Knight, Nathan Schiff Name: Causal Effects of Particulate Matter Pollution on Domestic Violence and Sexual Assault Description: This project uses an instrumental variables design to estimate the causal effects of fine particulate matter air pollution on violent crimes, specifically domestic violence and sexual assault.

Geographic Focus: United States Grant Recipient: The University of Texas at Dallas Principal Investigator(s): Anne Burton, Travis Roach Name: The Effects of Police and Social Service Spending on Crime Description: This project uses instrumental variables and regression discontinuity designs to evaluate the causal impact of municipal spending on crime rates in approximately 400 U.S. cities.

Geographic Focus: United States Grant Recipient: Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey Principal Investigator(s): Brenden Beck, Joseph Antonelli Name: The Use of Live 911 Technology in Policing: A Randomized Controlled Trial Description: This project employs a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the causal impact of an emerging technology that allows officers to listen in to 911 calls as they travel to a crime scene (rather than getting information relayed by dispatch).

Geographic Focus: Irvine, California Grant Recipient: Simon Fraser University Principal Investigator(s): Rylan Simpson, Michael Topper Name: Technological Change in Illicit Markets Description: This project uses a difference-in-differences design to evaluate the causal impact of mobile internet access on criminal coordination and illicit markets.

Geographic Focus: United States Grant Recipient: Princeton University Principal Investigator(s): Felipe Coy, Micaela Sviatschi, Pablo Zarate Name: Officer Misconduct, Arrest Types, and Court Outcomes Description: This project uses a difference-in-differences design to estimate the causal effects of Kalven v. City of Chicago which made police misconduct records in Illinois subject to FOIA .

Geographic Focus: Chicago, Illinois Grant Recipient: United States Naval Academy Principal Investigator(s): Bocar Ba, Nayoung Rim, Roman Rivera Name: The Effects of Childhood Medicaid Access on Adult Involvement in the Criminal Justice System Description: This project uses a difference-in-discontinuities design to estimate the causal impact of childhood Medicaid eligibility on criminal justice system contact in early adulthood.

Geographic Focus: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Michigan, Nebraska, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas, Utah, Washington, Wisconsin.

Grant Recipient: University of California at Berkeley Principal Investigator(s): Hilary Hoynes, Joseph Broadus Name: Mobile Crisis Response Teams Support Better Policing: Evidence from CAHOOTS Description: This project uses difference-in-differences and instrumental variables designs to identify the causal impact of an alternative response model ( CAHOOTS ) where crisis response teams respond to designated 911 calls instead of the police.

Grant Recipient: University of Oregon Principal Investigator(s): Jonathan Davis, Samuel Norris, Yotam Shem-Tov, Chelsea Strickland Name: The Effects of ShotSpotter on Shooting Fatality Rates Description: This project uses regression discontinuity and difference-in-differences designs to study the causal effects of Shotspotter, a directional acoustic microphone system for detecting gunfire and alerting law enforcement, on shooting fatality rates.

Geographic Focus: Chicago, Illinois Grant Recipient: University of Chicago Principal Investigator(s): Terence Chau, Philip Cook, Henry Jacobsen, Javier Lopez, Jens Ludwig, Alejandro Roemer, Adam Soliman Name: Addressing the Recruitment Crisis in Law Enforcement Description: This project uses a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the causal impact of an educational intervention exposing university students to information about career pathways in law enforcement.

Geographic Focus: Florida Grant Recipient: University of South Florida Principal Investigator(s): Mateus Renno Santos, Chae Jaynes Name: A Randomized Experiment to Target High Risk Gun Offenders in Denver, Colorado Description: This project uses a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the causal impact of a chronic gun offender initiative run by the Denver Police Department.

Geographic Focus: Denver, Colorado Grant Recipient: CRIME De-Coder Principal Investigator(s): Andrew Wheeler, Jacob Herrara Name: Do Community Rec Centers Deter Crime? Evidence from Baltimore Description: This project uses a difference-in-differences design to assess the causal impact of community rec center closings on crime and property values across neighborhoods in Baltimore.

Geographic Focus: Baltimore, Maryland Grant Recipient: University of Maryland Principal Investigator(s): Greg Midgette, Lauren Porter, Luke Spreen Name: Marijuana and the Minimum Legal Purchase Age Description: This project uses a regression discontinuity design to study the causal impact of marijuana and alcohol legal purchase availability at age 21 .

Geographic Focus: United States Grant Recipient: University of Oregon Principal Investigator(s): Ben Hansen and Edward Rubin Name: Case Closed: Bridging Gaps in Criminal Investigations for Racial Equity Description: This project employs randomization and quasi-random variation in detective assignments to identify the causal determinants of successful criminal investigations and develop value-added models to distinguish between patrol and detective contributions.

Geographic Focus: United States Grant Recipient: Northeastern University Principal Investigator(s): Matthew Ross, CarlyWill Sloan Name: Policing Minor Offenses and the Early-life Trajectory of Urban Men: Evidence from Linked Tax and Court Records Description: This project uses a difference-in-differences design to estimate the causal impact of exposure to frequent pedestrian stops and strict enforcement of minor offenses (i.e. stop-and-frisk) on arrest, education, and employment outcomes for young minority men.

Geographic Focus: New York City, New York Grant Recipient: University of Notre Dame du Lac Principal Investigator(s): Jonathan Tebes, Benjamin Goldman Name: Illinois Stability Investment for Family Housing ( SIFH ) Program Evaluation Description: This project uses a randomized controlled trial to study the causal impact of a large one-time cash transfer to families with children engaged in emergency homeless services on a variety of outcomes including victimization and criminal justice system contact.

Geographic Focus: Illinois Grant Recipient: University of Chicago Principal Investigator(s): Nour Abdul-Razzak, John Eric Humphries Name: The Impact of DACA on Juvenile Crime Description: This project uses a difference-in-differences design to examine the causal impact of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals ( DACA ) program on juvenile crime and delinquency.

Grant Recipient: Tulane University Principal Investigator(s): Barbara Lundebjerg, Douglas Harris Name: Understanding the Relationship Between Homeless Housing Facilities and Crime Description: This project uses a difference-in-differences design to evaluate the causal impact of permanent supportive housing and interim housing facilities serving LA ’s homeless population on local crime.

Geographic Focus: Los Angeles, California Grant Recipient: RAND Corporation Principal Investigator(s): Jason Ward, Rosanna Smart, Roland Neil, Sarah Hunter Name: The Effects of Drug Decriminalization (and Recriminalization) on Criminal Justice and Public Health Outcomes Description: This project uses synthetic difference-in-differences designs to assess the causal impact of changes in Oregon’s drug policy régime on overdoses and criminal justice outcomes.

Grant Recipient: University of Oregon Principal Investigator(s): Benjamin Hansen, Kyutaro Matsuzawa, David Hall Name: Evaluating the Impact of Algorithmic Policing on Crime Description: This project uses a difference-in-differences design to estimate the causal impact of algorithmic predictive policing strategies.

Geographic Focus: United States Grant Recipient: University of Minnesota Principal Investigator(s): Jeffrey Clement, Kartik Ganju Name: The Impact of Automated Policing Technologies on Racial Disparities in Law Enforcement Description: This project uses a difference-in-differences design to measure the causal impact of facial recognition and predictive policing technologies.

Geographic Focus: United States Grant Recipient: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Principal Investigator(s): Fabio Duarte, Timur Abbiasov Name: Kinship Diversion from Foster Care: An Analysis of Prevalence and Causal Impacts on Crime Description: This project uses an instrumental variables design to estimate the causal impact of kinship diversion on criminal justice outcomes among affected children and parents.

Geographic Focus: Wisconsin Grant Recipient: University of Wisconsin Principal Investigator(s): Jason Baron, Lawrence Berger, Sarah Font, Ezra Goldstein Name: The Effect of 24 ⁄ 7 Sobriety on Recidivism and Economic Outcomes Description: This project uses difference-in-differences and instrumental variables designs to evaluate a large-scale implementation of 24 ⁄ 7 sobriety.

Geographic Focus: North Dakota Grant Recipient: RAND Corporation Principal Investigator(s): Nancy Nicosia, Beau Kilmer, George Zuo, Rosanna Smart, Marika Booth Name: The Impact of the 988 Crisis Helpline on the Use of Emergency Services and Hospital Visits Description: This project uses regression discontinuity and difference-in-differences designs to assess the causal impact of the 988 call line for mental health emergencies on help seeking via 988 , 911 , and hospital visits.

Geographic Focus: United States Grant Recipient: Vanderbilt University Principal Investigator(s): Panka Bencsik Description: This project uses a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the causal impact of Lifting the Bar, an intervention to reduce recidivism by enhancing teacher-student relationships when justice-involved youth return to school.

Geographic Focus: Chicago, Illinois, and Milwaukee, Wisconsin Grant Recipient: Stanford University Principal Investigator(s): Greg Walton, Monica Bhatt Name: Cannabis Policy and Illicit Substance Use Description: This project uses a difference-in-differences design to study the causal impact of medical cannabidiol ( CBD ) policy on illicit opioid overdose deaths and crime.

Geographic Focus: United States Grant Recipient: RAND Corporation Principal Investigator(s): Rahi Abouk, David Powell Name: The Effects of Body-Worn Cameras on Policing and Court Outcomes: Evidence from Virginia Criminal Courts Description: This project uses a difference-in-differences design to evaluate the causal impact of body-worn cameras on police interactions, court processes, and criminal case outcomes.

Geographic Focus: Virginia Grant Recipient: Social Science Research Council Principal Investigator(s): Katie Bollman Name: Double Dealing: The Effect of Legalizing Recreational Marijuana on the Illegal Market Description: This project uses a difference-in-differences design to evaluate the causal impact of localized marijuana legalization on the market for marijuana in nearby, non-legalization states.

Geographic Focus: Washington and Oregon Grant Recipient: University of California, Davis Principal Investigator(s): Stephen Paolillo Name: The Economic Impacts of Substance Abuse Rehabilitation: Evidence from U.S. Drug Courts Description: This project uses a difference-in-differences design to estimate the causal effects of specialized drug courts on criminal justice, economic, and health outcomes.

Geographic Focus: United States Grant Recipient: Curators of the University of Missouri Principal Investigator(s): Brittany Street, Garrett Anstreicher Name: Impact of Digital Task Management and Performance Dashboards on High Priority Cases Outcomes Description: This project uses a regression discontinuity design to evaluate the causal impact of prosecutors using digital checklists and performance reports to manage high-priority violent crime cases.

Geographic Focus: Shelby County, Tennessee Grant Recipient: New Venture Fund Principal Investigator(s): Kevin Himberger, Rory Pulvino Name: Impact Evaluation of Supervised Release: An Instrumental Variable Analysis Description: This project uses an instrumental variables design to test the causal impact of supervised release on failure to appear and recidivism.

Geographic Focus: New York City, New York Grant Recipient: Research Foundation for the City of New York Principal Investigator(s): Stephen Koppel, Emily Leslie, Michael Rempel, Rene Ropac Name: Risk Tools in the Criminal Justice System: Evidence from New York City Description: This project uses a difference-in-differences design to evaluate the causal impact of a newly developed Release Assessment tool implemented in New York City’s pretrial system.

Geographic Focus: New York City, New York Grant Recipient: University of Chicago Principal Investigator(s): Jens Ludwig, Douglas Miller, Sendhil Mullainathan, Greg Stoddard Name: Does Management Matter? Evidence from Indigent Defense in Texas Description: This project uses a difference-in-differences design to evaluate the causal impact of managed defense offices on the quality of public defense as measured by case outcomes.

Grant Recipient: Regents of the University of California at Irvine Principal Investigator(s): Matthew Freedman, Emily Owens Name: Understanding the Effects of Criminal Prosecution Description: This project uses an instrumental variables design to examine the causal effect of misdemeanor prosecution on criminal justice and labor market outcomes.

Grant Recipient: University of California Los Angeles Principal Investigator(s): TJ Hedin Name: Ninth Circuit Charleston SC Case Screening RCT Description: This project uses a randomized controlled trial to estimate the causal impact of a prosecutorial intervention that screens out low-risk cases with insufficient evidence on case outcomes and recidivism.

Geographic Focus: Charleston, South Carolina Grant Recipient: New Venture Fund Principal Investigator(s): Donald Braman, Kevin Himberger, JJ Naddeo, Rory Pulvino Name: Fines, Fees, and Economic Wellbeing Description: This project uses a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the causal impact of a text message intervention providing information to individuals with court-ordered payments.

Geographic Focus: Arizona Grant Recipient: Arizona State University Principal Investigator(s): Susan Miller, Sian Mughan, Akheil Singla Name: The Impact of Publicly Provided Defense Counsel on Defendant Case Outcomes Description: This project uses a difference-in-differences design to evaluate the causal impact of changes to public defender salaries on the effectiveness of public defense in North Carolina.

Geographic Focus: North Carolina Grant Recipient: University of Maryland Principal Investigator(s): Taylor Landon Incarceration and Post-Incarceration Name: Juvenile Incarceration, Long-Run Outcomes, and Family Spillovers Description: This project uses an instrumental variables design to study the causal impact of juvenile incarceration on short and long-run criminal justice, education, and labor market outcomes.

Geographic Focus: South Carolina Grant Recipient: University of California at Riverside Principal Investigator(s): Ozkan Eren, Randi Hjalmarsson, Orgul Ozturk Name: The Effects of Driving Under the Influence Description: This project uses a regression discontinuity design to estimate the causal effects of DUI sanctions on driver outcomes in Ohio, Texas, and Washington.

Geographic Focus: Ohio, Texas, and Washington Grant Recipient: University of Notre Dame du Lac Principal Investigator(s): Jeffrey Denning, Benjamin Hansen, Lars Lefgren, Emily Leslie, Cody Tuttle Name: Evaluating Lubbock County’s Behavioral Therapy Program to Reduce Violence Among Inmates Description: This project uses a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the causal impact of a structured, intensive cognitive behavioral therapy program on behavioral outcomes in a Texas detention facility.

Geographic Focus: Lubbock County, Texas Grant Recipient: University of Notre Dame du Lac Principal Investigator(s): Mary Kate Batistich, Bill Evans, Tyler Giles, Jens Ludwig Name: The Impact of Union Pre-Apprenticeships for People Returning from Prison Description: This project uses a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the causal impact of the Pathways to Apprenticeship ( P 2 A ) program, a pre-apprenticeship initiative designed to connect formerly incarcerated individuals with union jobs in the construction industry.

Geographic Focus: New York City, New York Grant Recipient: Columbia University Principal Investigator(s): Adam Reich, Erin Jacobs Valentine, Sam Donahue Name: Recreational Marijuana Laws, Inmate Composition, and Recidivism Description: This project uses a difference-in-differences design to examine the causal impact of recreational marijuana laws on inmate composition and the subsequent likelihood of reoffending.

Geographic Focus: United States Grant Recipient: Social Science Research Council Principal Investigator(s): Anna Kyriazis Name: Rights Restoration Reentry Program in Ohio Prisons Description: This project uses a randomized controlled trial to examine the causal impact of prerelease services that facilitate record sealing and the provision of employment qualification certificates on public safety and labor market outcomes.

Grant Recipient: Ohio State University Principal Investigator(s): Pete Leasure, Maria Orsini Name: More than a ​ ‘ McJob’: Criminal Records, Education, and Access to Middle-Skill Jobs Description: This project uses a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the causal impact of post-secondary carceral education ( PSCE ) credentials on employer responses to job applications from candidates with criminal records.

Geographic Focus: Chicago, Illinois Grant Recipient: Northeastern University Principal Investigator(s): Abby Ballou, Megan Denver Name: Does Incarceration Reduce Crime or Redirect It? Description: This project uses a regression discontinuity design to evaluate the causal effects of incarceration accounting for offending and other misconduct that occurs within correctional facilities.

Geographic Focus: North Carolina Grant Recipient: University of Virginia Principal Investigator(s): Emma Harrington, Aurelie Ouss, Hannah Shaffer, Megan Stevenson Name: The Economic Impacts of Criminal Convictions Description: This project uses difference-in-differences and instrumental variables designs to understand how criminal convictions influence socio-economic outcomes.

Geographic Focus: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Grant Recipient: University of Pennsylvania Principal Investigator(s): Winnie van Dijk, John Eric Humphries, Aurelie Ouss, Megan Stevenson Name: Credit Access among Former Justice-Involved Entrepreneurs: RD Evidence from the Paycheck Protection Program Description: This project uses a regression discontinuity design to estimate the causal impact of small business loans made available through the Paycheck Protection Program to those with a felony record on criminal justice and labor market outcomes.

Geographic Focus: United States Grant Recipient: University of Missouri Principal Investigator(s): Keith Finlay, Kylie Hwang, Michael Mueller-Smith, Brittany Street What are you looking for?