Tipping Point Pacific Grant for Feminist Climate Justice

Advancing integrated scenarios and prediction models for informing transition to a nature positive society is sponsored by European Commission — Horizon Europe. Expected Outcome: Project results are expected to contribute to all the following expected outcomes: advanced knowledge and understanding how ecosystems respond to multiple plausible futures shaped by human-induced pressures, supporting the design of long-term, nature positive and equitable policies; strengthened collaboration across bio-physical , socio-economic and humanities disciplines, resulting in more integrated and robust scenario frameworks that capture interactions, trade-offs and synergies across biodiversity, climate, food, water, air, health, energy and economy; advancement of comprehensive ecosystem prediction models and scenario-based assessments that integrate direct and indirect drivers of biodiversity loss, applicable across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems; a consistent and transparent framework for model intercomparison and cross-scale scenario building, improving the relevance and usability of modelling outputs for policy , business and international assessments (e.g., IPBES, International Panel on Climate Change - IPCC). Scope: To address the objectives of the European Green Deal, the EU biodiversity strategy for 2030, the EU Nature Restoration Regulation and the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), as well as Sustainable Development Goals, actions funded under this topic should support the scientific development of A) integrated scenarios, B) predictive models and C) model intercomparison experiments for Member States and Associated Countries. Developments should be verified in case studies covering at least 2 European biogeographic regions [1] and spanning key economic sectors to inform systemic policy transformations and enable long-term planning for a nature positive society. Proposals should: design and develop components of a European integrated prediction and scenario framework to forecast how natural ecosystems respond to a wide range of human-induced ecosystem interactions including climate change, pollution, socio-economic transitions such as conflicts, pressures, and policy interventions. These frameworks should link ecosystem functions with key economic sectors, such as agriculture and fisheries, and test their resilience and tipping points under multiple plausible futures; make use of long-term monitoring data across biodiversity, land use, climate, and socio-economic variables to improve reliability and real-world relevance. They should also quantify uncertainty in model projections and ensure scenarios incorporate dynamic feedback loops between ecosystems and socio-economic systems, and identify risk distributions relevant to frontline socio-ecological communities; test and assess the suitability of the IPBES Nature Futures Framework for European application and align modelling approaches with international efforts and assessments under IPBES and IPCC. Proposals should seek to address knowledge gaps identified by the relevant IPBES assessments and if appropriate provide recommendations to policymakers; advance model intercomparison capabilities to improve robustness, consistency and transparency in scenario-based assessments. To this end, the suitability of remote sensing data for scalability and intercomparison between different models and across different regions should be assessed. Proposals should include case studies that cover at least two European biogeographic regions with global relevance to verify the developed scenarios, models and intercomparison experiments. Case studies should consider different geographical scales and explore ecosystem tele coupling across Europe and beyond. Scenario development should involve relevant stakeholders—including public authorities, economic sectors, and civil society—in co-creating narratives and ensuring policy applicability. Socio-economic transitions and equity and justice considerations concerning trade-offs and distributional impacts across regions and communities (i.e. across biodiversity, climate, food, water, Programme areas: Horizon Europe (HORIZON), Global Challenges and European Industrial Competitiveness, Food, Bioeconomy Natural Resources, Agriculture and Environment, Biodiversity and Natural Resources Keywords: Biodiversity conservation, Biological systems analysis, modelling and simulation, Earth Observation / Services and applications, Ecology, EU biodiversity strategy, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, biodiversity, climate change, drivers of biodiversity loss, earth observation, freshwater ecosystems, intercomparison, marine ecosystems, model, modelling, nature conservation, scenario, terrestrial ecosystems

Note: This is a Notice of Intent. An announcement is not related to this notice. The TIP Office is not accepting applications at this time. Please review the attached notice for full details. Background: The goal of PEMS is to measurably and substantially reduce the prevalence of human trafficking and the harms associated with the crime in targeted populations through innovative interventions driven by research, monitoring, evaluation, and learning, and the expansion of partnerships with government, academia, civil society organizations, international organizations and the private sector. The U.S. Congress has appropriated $25 million annually since 2016 for PEMS, with $200 million in funding obligated to date. The TIP Office intends to further build the evidence base around what interventions work effectively to address trafficking in persons through funding the implementation and rigorous evaluation of high-potential and high-impact promising interventions. The TIP Office intends to consider interventions that have some evidence pointing to their effectiveness which could benefit from an evaluation to validate the intervention approach and answer important research questions about what is effective in anti-trafficking in persons programming. The TIP Office will consider interventions that have shown promise but have not had the funding to be rigorously evaluated; interventions that have shown success in other fields but have not been adapted and tested as a human trafficking intervention; and interventions for which there is a design for programming supported by significant research, which have not yet had the funding to implement and evaluate. Local expertise will be considered critical for implementing projects under this future opportunity. Please review the full notice attached. Funding Opportunity Number: DFOP0017042. Assistance Listing: 19.019. Funding Instrument: O. Category: O.